Election 2025: Earthquake aftershocks expose high cost of Vanuatu’s democracy

Out of the rubble of the 7.3 magnitude earthquake that hit Vanuatu’s capital Port Vila on Dec. 17 and the snap election due on Jan. 16, a new leadership is required to reset the country’s developmental trajectory. 

Persistent political turmoil has hampered the Pacific nation’s ability to deal with a compounding set of social and economic shocks over recent years, caused by climate-related and other natural disasters. 

The earthquake is estimated to have conservatively caused US$244 million [VUV29 billion] in damage, and the Vanuatu Government’s ability to pay for disaster response, the election, and resume public service delivery will require strong, committed and stable leadership. 

Prior to the devastating quake and dramatic dissolution of parliament on Nov. 18, economist Peter Judge from Vanuatu-based Pacific Consulting warned of an evolving economic emergency. Vanuatu’s US$1 billion economy faced a concerning decline in government revenue from value-added tax, down 25% on the previous year. 

This was a ripple effect from the decline in economic activity after the collapse of national airline Air Vanuatu last May, as well as the falling revenues from the troubled Citizenship by Investment Program. Both were plagued by lack of oversight by parliamentarians.

In 2024, Vanuatu is expected to record about 1% economic growth, as it struggles to climb out of the red and back to pre-pandemic levels.

Conversely, Vanuatu has a much more positive, although somewhat contradictory democratic profile. 

According to the Global State of Democracy Initiative, Vanuatu is one of the more democratic states in the Pacific islands region, and currently ranks as 45th in the world. 

But this performance comes with a significant price. Leadership turnover is frequent, with 28 prime ministerial terms in just 44 years of statehood, 20 of those in the last 25 years, the highest frequency of change in the Melanesian region. 

The impacts of disrupted leadership and political instability are highly visible. Government decision-making and service delivery is grindingly slow. In Vanuatu’s Parliament, the legislative process is frequently deferred due to regular motions of no confidence, with several critical bills still awaiting MPs’ attention.

Last October, for example, the Vanuatu Government proposed a 2025 budget 10% smaller than 2024’s, due to reduced economic activity and declining government revenue. 

Parliament was unable to approve this year’s budget due to its sudden dissolution on Nov. 18, only two-and-a-half years into a four-year political term. This is the second consecutive presidential dissolution of parliament, the previous one in 2022 also occurring barely two-and-a-half years into its term. 

The Bill for the appropriation of the 2025 budget now awaits the formation of the next legislature for approval. In the meantime, earthquake recovery and election management costs accumulate under a caretaker government. 

With deepening economic hardship and industries facing slow economic growth across multiple sectors, voters are looking for leadership that can stabilize the compounding cost of living pressures. 

The new government will need to urgently tackle overdue, unresolved issues pertaining to reliable inter-island transport and air connectivity, outstanding teacher salaries and greater opportunities for the nation’s restive youth. 

The youth unemployment rate is at 10.7% and rising.

Democracy with political stability is the holy grail for Vanuatu. But attaining this legendary and supposedly miraculous prize comes with costs attached.

In response to civic and youth activism in late 2023 calling for political stability and transparency, the last parliament approved a national referendum to make political affiliation more accountable and end party hopping.The rules come into force in the next parliamentary term for the first time.

The referendum passed successfully on May 29, 2024, but cost US$2.9 million. The 2022 snap election required US$1.4 million and the 2025 poll is expected to require another US$1.6 million.

While revenue from candidature fees of US$250,000 does cover part of these costs, each legislature transition also weighs on the public purse. The current crop of outgoing 52 parliamentarians were paid out US$1.62 million in gratuities and benefits – around US$31,000 per MP – even though most did not see out their full terms. Vanuatu’s average annual household income in 2020 was US$9,000.

Whatever the outcome of the 2025 snap election, the incoming government will need to refocus attention on stabilising the trajectory of Vanuatu’s economy and development.

The next legislature – the 14th – will need to commit to stability in the interests of Vanuatu’s people and the nation’s development. The most immediate priorities for a new government should be the passage of the 2025 national budget and the implementation of an earthquake recovery and reconstruction plan. 

In the 45 years since throwing off the British and French colonial yoke, citizens have enthusiastically done their duty at elections in the expectation of a national leadership that will take Vanuatu forward. Now their faith appears to be waning, after the 2022 poll saw voter turnout - a key indicator of the health of a democracy - dropped below 50% for the first time since independence. 

This election therefore needs to see a return on the considerable investment made in Vanuatu’s democratic processes, both in terms of financial cost to successive governments and donors, and more to the point, a political dividend for voters. 

Anna Naupa is a ni-Vanuatu scholar and currently a PhD student at the Australian National University. The views expressed here are her own and do not reflect the position of BenarNews.